There are several "races" during the Big Ten conference season; who will win the conference and who will qualify for the NCAAs. I am not prepared to predict a conference champion yet among Indiana, Wisconsin and Michigan State but I can share why the "second race" is almost done.

This year, more so than in recent past it is pretty clear who will qualify for the tournament and who will not. This situation is caused by two factors; first most of the mid level teams feasted on weak non conference opponents, ensuring them enough wins to qualify for the tournament if they have over .500 conference records. Secondly there are more really bad teams this year making it easier for the decent teams to reach 10-8 this season.

Who is a Lock to make the tournament?

As stated earlier, the Big Three of Indiana, Michigan State and Wisconsin, along with Ohio State

Who Should also make the tournament?

Purdue is playing well and should end up 11-7 maybe even better

Who are the long shots?

Either Iowa or Minnesota might sneak in as the 6th team. Several things are working against both schools the most important being neither is great. Secondly, the conference has been weak for the past several years in the middle of the pack and thus won't get any special breaks from the Selection Committee. However, given the weak bottom of the conference, one of these teams probably Iowa could end up 10-8 and make it.

Which teams smell like ripe diapers this season?

The Big Ten has featured at least 2 clunkers every year...teams below 6 conference wins. Despite having 2 more conference games this season 3 teams for sure will fall under the 6 win line, Michigan, Penn State and Northwestern and there is an outside chance Illinois will fall to that level if they play like they did in the second half against Purdue.

More analysis as the season moves closer to the midpoint.....

 

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